Chlorine modeling in water distribution networks using ARX and ARMAX model structures
Karadirek, I. Ethem and Soyupak, Selcuk and Muhammetoglu, Habib
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Abstract
Chlorination is still the main method of disinfection worldwide.
Utilization of chlorine modeling enhances the management of water supply
systems toward the reduction of the risks of waterborne diseases and
cancer from disinfection byproducts formation. In this paper, the
results of chlorine modeling efforts were presented as an extension of a
project for Konyaalti Water Distribution Network (KWDN) of Antalya City,
in the south of Turkey, using autoregressive with exogenous input (ARX)
annd autoregressive moving average with exogenous input (ARMAX) model
structures. The required data-sets were obtained from the existing
online monitoring stations. The ARX and ARMAX model structures modified
for time series applications were utilized to predict chlorine
concentrations at the critical point of KWDN. Non-representative
data-sets were initially identified and excluded from the database. Best
fit and Akaike's Final Prediction Error techniques were used as model
selection criteria. ARX4-5-3 and ARMAX2-3-3-4 were identified to be the
best ARX and ARMAX model structures among several structures tested to
predict chlorine concentrations at the critical point of KWDN. This
study shows that ARX and ARMAX model structures can be considered as
potential for managing chlorine levels in water distribution networks
especially when the properties of the components and hydraulics of water
distribution network are unknown.... Show more Show less