Time series modelling for goat and cow milk price index forecasting by trend analysis and Holt’s method

  • Yazar/lar ERYÜRÜK, Şule
    ÇİĞDEM, Hanne
  • Yayın Türü Konferans Bildirisi
  • Yayın Tarihi 2022
  • Yayıncı 3rd Advanced Engineering Days
  • Tek Biçim Adres http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12498/5898

Goat and cow milk is a fundamental agricultural product. Multiple factors can affect the price of milk over time such as production conditions, consumption demand, financial crisis and inflation. Dynamics of the milk price data should be considered to determine trend, cycle, or seasonality in the milk market so each pattern may affect the forecasting method should be used and the estimation results. Hence, the aim of this study is finding the pattern of the milk price time series data and estimation for the next 3 monthly periods. Historical data of Goat Milk and Cow Milk was used from the Agricultural Products Producer Price Index data between January 2016 to March 2022 published by Turkish Statistical Institute. Considering the trend pattern, trend analysis and Holt’s method (double exponential smoothing) were used. The results demonstrated that the trend pattern may continue in near future, indicating that the procedures used were reasonable.

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Eser Adı
(dc.title)
Time series modelling for goat and cow milk price index forecasting by trend analysis and Holt’s method
Yayın Türü
(dc.type)
Konferans Bildirisi
Yazar/lar
(dc.contributor.author)
ERYÜRÜK, Şule
Yazar/lar
(dc.contributor.author)
ÇİĞDEM, Hanne
Atıf Dizini
(dc.source.database)
Wos
Atıf Dizini
(dc.source.database)
Scopus
Yayıncı
(dc.publisher)
3rd Advanced Engineering Days
Yayın Tarihi
(dc.date.issued)
2022
Kayıt Giriş Tarihi
(dc.date.accessioned)
2023-02-28T18:39:03Z
Açık Erişim tarihi
(dc.date.available)
2023-02-28T18:39:03Z
Özet
(dc.description.abstract)
Goat and cow milk is a fundamental agricultural product. Multiple factors can affect the price of milk over time such as production conditions, consumption demand, financial crisis and inflation. Dynamics of the milk price data should be considered to determine trend, cycle, or seasonality in the milk market so each pattern may affect the forecasting method should be used and the estimation results. Hence, the aim of this study is finding the pattern of the milk price time series data and estimation for the next 3 monthly periods. Historical data of Goat Milk and Cow Milk was used from the Agricultural Products Producer Price Index data between January 2016 to March 2022 published by Turkish Statistical Institute. Considering the trend pattern, trend analysis and Holt’s method (double exponential smoothing) were used. The results demonstrated that the trend pattern may continue in near future, indicating that the procedures used were reasonable.
Yayın Dili
(dc.language.iso)
en
Tek Biçim Adres
(dc.identifier.uri)
http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12498/5898
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